Can You Predict Crowd Behavior? Big Data Can!
The 2012 elections were a hotbed of predictions, but one man’s election forecast stood out from the rest both in its boldness and in how wildly accurate it turned out to be. Nate Silver, a blogger and statistician gave then presidential incumbent, Barack Obama, more than a 90 percent chance of winning the election. In addition, in his last prediction he gave Mr. Obama 313 votes and Mr. Romney 225 votes with a margin of 14. The actual election results fell directly within this prediction with the incumbent garnering 303 electoral votes and Mitt Romney winning 206. While many disparaged Silver’s predictions as a ploy to try to swing the election (Silver was an open Obama supporter), it seemed Silver got the last laugh when his prediction came true.
via SmartData Collective.